China isn't about to invade the island. But if neither side changes course, the two governments are on a dangerous path.

Then in 2013, Taiwan's Defense Ministry estimated the Chinese government would have the capability to invade by 2020 -- neither came to pass.
Beijing is piling military, economic and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan to achieve its longterm goal of "One China" -- a single united country including the island.
But that wasn't the only reason for the record-breaking drills -- they capped months of heightened tensions between China and Taiwan.
J. Michael Cole, a Taipei-based senior fellow with Global Institute Taiwan, said the growing tensions between the US and China had also helped Taiwan boost its profile.
"China wants to keep Taiwan in a box and it is using more and more coercion against Taiwan ...
"China wants to keep Taiwan in a box and it is using more and more coercion against Taiwan ...
By putting pressure on Taiwan, President Xi Jinping is trying to shore up support ahead of the 2022 Chinese Communist Party Congress.
China's 'peaceful reunification' goalOne of the clearest signs of Beijing's reluctance to invade Taiwan came from an unusual source -- Xi himself.
In extensive war games held by the US earlier this year, the American forces were able to thwart a simulated Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the year 2030 -- just.
The newly-elected leader of Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party, Eric Chu, has agreed mainland China and Taiwan belong to the same country.
Taiwan invasion may be counterproductiveAny Chinese invasion of Taiwan won't come without warning, experts said.
Taiwanese soldiers prepare grenade launchers, machine guns and tanks in a drill preparing for a Chinese invasion in Tainan, Taiwan, on September 16, 2021.